Tag: polls

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Donald Trump Elections GOP Polls

A Crucial Voting Bloc Is Abandoning The Trump-Vance Ticket: New Polling Data

For years, failed former president Donald Trump and the Republican Party have tried to make inroads with one of the fastest-growing voting blocs in the country: Hispanics.

But it appears that outreach was all for naught, according to new polling data.

On Wednesday’s edition of MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” co-host Jonathan Lemire asked former Biden administration press secretary Jen Psaki about the polls.

“It’s not like Trump’s numbers are really going down per se. At least not much,” Lemire noted. “It’s more Harris’ growing support. It seems like Democrats that, for whatever reason, had really cooled on President Biden are now coming home because they’re excited about Kamala.”

“That’s exactly right, and remember just over a month ago, there was a larger number of double haters as we called them, people who weren’t thrilled about either candidate,” Psaki explained. “There was a large percentage of undecided voters that kind of wavered from poll to poll, and this all is a reflection of Democrats coming home, or Democratic-leaning voters coming home, which is a very good sign for the Biden (sic) and Walz campaign, exactly what you want coming out of the convention.”

“One of the most interesting numbers, certainly 18 to 34-year-olds, but the Hispanic number, Latinos is super interesting because this is a group that Trump and the Trump team has really done a ton of outreach to, and it is a group that you have seen some trends in certain states that has been leaning sometimes more Republican than they have been historically Democratic,” she added.

The segment concluded with Psaki remarking, “So this is a very good sign for them. What this means too, and you see this in state polls which are much more interesting to me than national polls, is that some of the states that seem to be off of the competition lane for the Democratic ticket like Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, are back in competition, and that’s a very good sign for the Harris-Walz team because they have more maps to get to 270, and it’s not just the Blue Wall, even though the Blue Wall will still be pivotal.”

Women, the single-largest voting bloc in the country, are now registering to vote in record numbers, as are young people. Harris will likely win the black vote by a mile and is also looking good among Asian voters. If the Hispanic vote also breaks for Harris, Trump will be left with little more than angry white men who wouldn’t vote for a black woman in a million years.

Could a popular and electoral vote be in the offing for Democrats in November? That’s very possible, but only if we all get out and cast a ballot against Trump and his extreme right-wing agenda.

 

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Elections GOP Kamala Harris Polls

JD Vance: Polls That Show Kamala Harris Has Electoral Momentum Are All ‘Fake!’

According to Sen. J.D. Vance, all of the polls that show Vice President Kamala Harris with political momentum on the eve of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago are all “fake” and shouldn’t be believed.

Vance appeared on the friendly airwaves of Fox News earlier this morning. Host Shannon Bream asked him about several recent polls that have Harris pulling ahead of failed former president Donald Trump in several key battleground states. Rather than answer the question, Vance suggested that support for Harris is stagnant and decreasing.

“How does that not line up then with another poll we got out this morning, Washington Post, ABC, they’re giving the vice president nationally a four to five-point lead?” Bream inquired. “I mean, those are new numbers.”

“So if you think the momentum is not swinging or your internal polls are suggesting differently, every other poll that’s been released has shown great momentum in her direction.”

Vance replied, “You know, Shannon, I think there are a lot of polls that actually show her stagnating and leveling off. Of course, ABC, Washington Post was a wildly inaccurate pollster in the summer of 2020.”

But this isn’t 2020. It’s 2024.

“We can’t worry about polls,” Vance insisted. “Consistently, what you’ve seen in 2016 and 2020 is that the media uses fake polls to drive down Republican turnout and to create dissension and conflict with Republican voters.”

“I’m telling you, every single person who’s watching this, the Trump campaign is in a very, very good spot.”

Fake polls? That’s a common refrain when a candidate is losing. And the Trump-Vance ticket is losing badly, especially when it comes to momentum and fundraising. Their poll numbers drop nearly every time one of them opens his mouth.

At this rate, Trump and Vance could wind up losing by a historic margin. Maybe that would finally put a stake through the heart of the MAGA movement.

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Donald Trump Elections Kamala Harris Polls

Kamala Harris Now Has Multiple Paths To Victory As Trump’s Chances Dwindle

With the 2024 election now just 79 days away, the political fortunes of Vice President Kamala Harris and Democrats continue to rise while her opponent, failed former president Donald Trump, is in political freefall, watching as his poll numbers slump even further and his chances of winning dwindle.

A new polling model from the Washington Post shows that Harris has multiple paths to an Electoral College victory. Trump, on the other hand, is facing the prospect of having to win every single battleground state to return to the presidency.

According to the Post, Harris would narrowly lose the election if it were held today, based on current polls across the states, but still has a better chance of winning because her path to victory isn’t as narrow as Trump’s.

“Our modeling shows that Harris has two paths to possible success: the Rust Belt states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and the Sun Belt states of Georgia, Arizona and Nevada as well as North Carolina(she could win in either region and still claim the White House). Meanwhile, Trump must win both the Rust Belt and Sun Belt to triumph.”

The turning point in the 2024 election occurred on June 27, when President Joe Biden debated Trump and performed poorly, looking somewhat confused and often missing a chance to go on the attack against his opponent.

When Biden withdrew from the race and endorsed Harris, the entire election was “reset” the Post explains. That’s why models show her as the likely winner when the votes are tabulated three months from now.

“The other, and more crucial, reason that Harris is favored is that her improvement in the polls has opened up a second path on the presidential battlefield and in the electoral college. The polling suggests that, unlike Biden, she is no longer effectively tied to the Rust Belt — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — to hit 270 electoral votes. As of today, Harris is now only a typically sized polling error away from winning key Sun Belt states. Winning all of Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia would also be enough to put Harris over the top and she is continuing to improve her position in those states.”

Trump, however, has to win both the Rust Belt and Sun Belt states, which is a heavy lift for any Republican since Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are either trending Democratic or are historically more favorable for Democrats based on past voting trends.

If Harris does manage to carry the Rust Belt and Sun Belt states, she would wind up with well over 300 electoral votes, and could win in a landslide not seen since 2008 when Barack Obama swamped John McCain by a final Electoral College tally of 365 to 173.

The upcoming Sept. 10 debate between Harris and Trump could also cement the vice president’s chances of winning by proving that she has a firm grasp of all the main issues that voters list as their priorities: The economy, healthcare, education, and national security.

For his part, Trump continues to spin wildly out of control, telling supporters Saturday evening in Pennsylvania, “I am much better looking than her. I’m a better-looking person than Kamala.”

Clearly, Donald hasn’t looked in the mirror lately when he styles the bird’s next that sits atop his head.

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Donald Trump Elections GOP Polls

Political Expert Suggests Trump May Dump Vance In Desperate Effort To Boost His Poll Numbers

GOP vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance campaigned in Virginia on Monday, but his first solo campaign event since the 2024 Republican convention didn’t exactly go well, leading to massive online mockery for the Ohio senator.

The Associated Press reports that Vance began by attacking President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic nominee for the White House.

“History will remember Joe Biden as not just a quitter, which he is, but as one of the worst presidents in the history of the United States of America. But my friends, Kamala Harris is a million times worse and everybody knows it. She signed up for every single one of Joe Biden’s failures, and she lied about his mental capacity to serve as president.”

Vance also took a bizarre detour into the world of diet soda, suggesting that his fondness for Diet Mountain Dew would likely get him branded a racist by Democrats.

“I had a Diet Mountain Dew yesterday, and one today — I’m sure they’re gonna call that racist too,” he remarked.

That odd non-sequitur led Mike Madrid, co-founder of The Lincoln Project, to suggest that Trump might dump Vance from the ticket and find someone who can give a decent campaign stump speech.

Others then joined the social media debate on Vance.

 

Categories
Crime Donald Trump Elections

New Polling Points To ‘Real Fallout’ From Trump’s Criminal Conviction

As we near the three-week mark since convicted felon Donald Trump was found guilty on 34 criminal counts by a Manhattan jury, it appears that the verdict is indeed dragging down the failed former president’s polls numbers, especially among a key bloc of voters.

Politico, in conjunction with Ipsos, released the results of their latest poll this morning, and it shows that 21 percent of independent voters say Trump’s conviction makes them less likely to vote for him and will also play an important role in who they cast their ballot for this November.

“Among the most notable findings in our poll: 21 percent of independents said the conviction made them less likely to support Trump and that it would be an important factor in their vote. In a close election, small shifts among independent and swing voters could determine the outcome.”

Additionally, while Trump and his allies have repeatedly attempted to sow distrust of the American judicial system, respondents remain confident in it, with one glaring exception: The U.S. Supreme Court.

“But the least trusted actors in the legal system are not the lawyers prosecuting or defending the cases, or even the kind of state judges presiding over Trump’s case. They are the Supreme Court justices themselves, whose public approval has taken a considerable hit in recent years thanks to unpopular rulings issued by the conservative supermajority and a series of rolling ethical controversies involving Republican appointees Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas.”

The responses from independents should terrify Trump’s campaign brain trust, Politico notes.

“Thirty-two percent of them said that the conviction made them less likely to support Trump. Only 12 percent of them said that it made them more likely to support Trump.”

The new poll also shows that just having a conviction on his record could drive voters away from Trump, which is reflected in the 21 percent who told Ipsos the former president being a felon matters to their vote and makes them less likely to support him when they cast their ballot.

If the upcoming election is as close as the one we saw in 2020, that 21 percent could prove decisive, especially in key battleground states such as Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, all of which are in play at the moment.