With the 2022 midterm elections now just a bit more than three months away, new polling data in four key battleground states — Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania — show Democrats increasing their majority in the U.S. Senate, thanks in large part to weak Republican candidates and their connection to failed, one-term former president Donald Trump.
Mediaite reports that the polling results were released in a memo from Trump’s former national security adviser, John Bolton, and carried the title, “New Poll Finds Trump Hurts Republican Chances in Key Senate Races Independents’ Opposition to Trump Could Give Democrats Outright Senate Control.”
Bolton then broke down the results from a new survey conducted by his John Bolton Super PAC of “likely voters in four key Senate battleground states (Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania).”
In each of these four states, the Trump-backed candidate won the GOP primary and has since made headlines for their lackluster or controversial campaigns.
Summarizing the data, Bolton writes:
“Results indicate that Donald Trump is a significant drag on the general-election prospects of Republican candidates. Independent and undecided voters, whose votes will be critical, perhaps dispositive in November, nationally and in the four swing states, have decidedly unfavorable views of Trump.”
Especially troubling for Republicans is that among Independent voters, Trump’s favorability is 10 points underwater: Favorable 38%, Unfavorable 48%.
Additionally, a mere 12.5% of Republican primary voters identified as “Trump Republicans” and 73% said they were “moderate or conservative.”
Here’s a look at the polls from each state that Bolton cited in his memo:
- Georgia: Republican Herschel Walker leads Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock by 4 points 46% to 42% with a large amount of voters still undecided.
- Pennsylvania: Republican Mehmet Oz is losing badly to Democrat John Fetterman, trailing by 6 points. Trump is seen as favorable by 31% of those surveyed, but 43% say they view the disgraced ex-president unfavorably.
- Ohio: Republican J.D. Vance is down by 6 points to Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan, 44% to 38%.
- North Carolina: Republican Ted Budd trails Democrat Cheri Beasley by 3 points, 43% to 40%.
Bolton concludes his memo with this warning for the GOP:
“Whatever Trump’s role in the nominating process, his role in the coming general elections can be fatal to GOP efforts to gain outright control of the Senate.
“Trump’s fixation on himself and the 2020 election are poisonous to independent and undecided voters. Republican candidates who hope to win in November are risking political suicide if they stress their closeness to Trump, or allow their opponents to portray them as mini-Trumps.”
If Republicans do indeed lose more seats in the Senate, one person will be responsible, and his name is Donald John Trump.
