With the midterm election now just 48 hours away and record number of ballots already cast in several key states, a new poll from NBC News suggests that momentum in the final two days has shifted to Democrats.
Most notably, the generic ballot number is now in favor of Democrats, but the margin is razor thin.
The final national NBC News poll of the 2022 midterms finds a highly competitive campaign landscape ahead of Election Day. While Democrats have pulled even with Republicans in enthusiasm, President Joe Biden remains unpopular, and voters express deep dissatisfaction about the state of the country.
Forty-eight percent of likely voters say they prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress as the outcome of Tuesday’s elections, while 47% prefer a Republican-controlled Congress.
That’s a reversal from October, when 48% preferred a GOP-controlled Congress versus 47% who wanted Democrats in charge.
The most notable change in polling is that Democrats have caught up with Republicans when it comes to interest in the election.
In October’s NBC News poll, Republicans held a 9-point advantage in high voter interest, 78% to 69%, after Democrats had previously closed the enthusiasm gap following the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.
Additionally, there’s a new top interest for voters, with 23% saying the most important issue facing the country is “threats to democracy.” 20% named the economy as the biggest issue.
But when asked which set of issues was more important in deciding their vote, 50% of voters said a candidate’s position on abortion, threats to democracy and addressing the cost of living by raising taxes on corporations (which largely has been the Democratic message).
There’s also good news from several states where Senate races will determine who controls the upper house of Congress, with polls giving the advantage to Democrats in the states of Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. Turnout is seen as key to Democratic efforts to pick up seats in key battleground states.
And turnout has been at record highs in states with early voting, with The Washington Post reporting that early voting totals have already surpassed the early vote total in the 2018 midterm.