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Elections Polls U.S. Senate

New Poll Shows Arizona Democrats Are Ready To Replace Kyrsten Sinema

Arizona Democratic Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s refusal to support reform of the Senate filibuster and vote in favor of President Joe Biden’s “Build Back Better” agenda have her in big trouble with Democratic voters in the Grand Canyon state, according to a new poll which suggests that Sinema will likely face a primary challenge when she seeks reelection in 2024.

The poll, according to HuffPost, was conducted by the progressive group Data for Progress:

“Her opposition to President Biden’s agenda is setting her up for an incredibly tough Democratic primary,” said Sean McElwee, one of the co-founders of Data for Progress, while acknowledging that 2024 is a long way away. “She will be facing immense headwinds.”

Seventy percent of prospective 2024 primary voters have a negative opinion of Sinema, with just 24% expressing a positive view of the first-term senator. Nearly half have a “very unfavorable” opinion. For contrast, 85% of primary voters have a favorable opinion of Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), who is also in his first term.

The poll named four potential challengers to Sinema in a hypothetical Democratic primary: Rep. Ruben Gallego; Rep. Greg Stanton, the former mayor of Phoenix; Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego; and Tucson Mayor Regina Romero.

If those four were to run in a primary (which is unlikely), Gallego would garner 23% of the vote to Sinema’s 19% and Stanton’s 13%.

However, in head-to-head matchup with Sinema, all four of the challengers would best the current Arizona senator by double digits:

All four potential challengers have massive leads: Ruben Gallego leads Sinema 62% to 23%; Kate Gallego has a 60% to 25% edge; Stanton leads 59% to 24%; and Romero leads 55% to 26%.

President Biden could play a major role in the 2024 Arizona Senate primary, too, as he is still very popular with Democrats in the state. However, it’s unclear if the president would support a primary challenge to Sinema.

Other recent polls have also shown that Sinema is losing support among Democratic voters:

Morning Consult survey from earlier this month found that 46% of Democrats approved of her job performance, while 40% disapproved. Overall, voters were split on her performance, with 42% approving and 42% disapproving.

If Sinema does wind up preventing passage of Biden’s ambitious domestic agenda, 2024 could wind up being a very bad year for the incumbent senator.

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Elections GOP U.S. Senate

Big Trouble For Little Marco: Val Demings Is Tied With Rubio In Florida Senate Race

A new poll in the 2022 Florida Senate race has bad news for incumbent Republican Sen. Marco Rubio.

The latest St. Pete Polls survey shows Rubio only holds a narrow two-point lead over his Democratic challenger, Rep. Val Demings. Rubio leads 48 to 46 percent, which is well within the margin of error, meaning that the two are in a statistical tie, something that has to alarm Rubio and the GOP, which is desperate to gain seats in the Senate in the upcoming midterm elections.

 

And that’s not the only bad news for Republicans when it comes to the Sunshine State.

Ron DeSantis, the incumbent governor of Florida, has seen his poll numbers collapse as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to hit the state particularly hard. Florida is regularly the state with the most daily cases and deaths from coronavirus, and DeSantis’ stance against mask mandates isn’t helping his popularity.

A poll released ten days ago shows that DeSantis’ popularity has fallen by a full 10 points:

“(The poll) found that of 3,952 respondents to the poll on 2 and 3 August, as few as 44 per cent approved of the Florida Republican.”

That same poll also had bad news for DeSantis on the issue of mask mandates, with 62% of respondents saying they think masks should be required for all schoolchildren. The governor has threatened to punish school districts in the state that mandate the wearing of masks.

DeSantis is locked in a difficult race for reelection with Democratic front-runner Charlie Crist, who is the former governor of Florida and has significant name recognition among voters.

If Florida happens to elect both Demings and Crist, 2022 will wind up being a disaster for Republicans, especially since many in the GOP see DeSantis as one of the top candidates for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.