In three weeks, failed one-term, twice-impeached former president Donald Trump will sit in a Manhattan courtroom as he hears the case against him presented by District Attorney Alvin Bragg, who alleges that the ex-president engaged in a criminal scheme that included an extramarital affair Trump had with Stormy Daniels, hush money payments he made to keep her quiet in the midst of the 2016 presidential race, and other wrongdoing committed as part of that scheme.
But will a conviction on those charges have any political impact on Trump’s bid for a second term in office?
That’s the question asked by Politico as part of a poll conducted by Ipsos, and the results are very bad news for Trump and his 2024 campaign, which is already running low on campaign funds.
More than a third of independents said a guilty verdict would make them less likely to support Trump’s candidacy. In a close race, that might matter.
Half of the country already believes that Trump did indeed pay hush money to Daniels and broke the law by doing so, the poll indicates.
Fifty percent of respondents said that they believe Trump is guilty of the alleged crimes charged in Manhattan.
There was a predictable and sizable partisan split, with only 14 percent of Republicans reporting that they believe Trump is guilty, while 86 percent of Democrats held that view. Among independents, 54 percent said that Trump is guilty.
Independents are especially troubled by the possibility of a Trump conviction, with more than a third saying a criminal conviction in Manhattan would make them less likely to support the disgraced former president. In a close election, that could be more than enough votes to reelect Joe Biden.
By a more than 2-1 margin, respondents said that a conviction would make them less likely to support Trump (32 percent) as opposed to more likely (13 percent). Notably, more than a third of independents said it would reduce their likelihood to support Trump. Not surprisingly, the vast majority of respondents who said that a conviction would bolster their support were Republicans.
Trump is also facing legal issues related to his attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 election and refusing to hand over classified documents he took on his way out of office and stored in non-secure facilities at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida.
The poll also shows that a majority of Americans have no faith in the Supreme Court to make a fair ruling on whether or not Trump has immunity from his actions while he was president.
About half of the country does not trust the Supreme Court to issue a fair and nonpartisan ruling on the question of whether Trump is immune from prosecution.
A sizable plurality (46 percent) expressed that view, while about a quarter of the respondents (24 percent) took the other side. About a third (29 percent) said that they do not know whether they trust the court on this issue.
No matter what happens in the months ahead, Trump will be spending a large portion of his time in court instead of on the campaign trail, and that alone could prove a political liability as he seeks to win in 2024.
