Category: Polls

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Donald Trump Elections Kamala Harris Polls

Kamala Harris Now Has Multiple Paths To Victory As Trump’s Chances Dwindle

With the 2024 election now just 79 days away, the political fortunes of Vice President Kamala Harris and Democrats continue to rise while her opponent, failed former president Donald Trump, is in political freefall, watching as his poll numbers slump even further and his chances of winning dwindle.

A new polling model from the Washington Post shows that Harris has multiple paths to an Electoral College victory. Trump, on the other hand, is facing the prospect of having to win every single battleground state to return to the presidency.

According to the Post, Harris would narrowly lose the election if it were held today, based on current polls across the states, but still has a better chance of winning because her path to victory isn’t as narrow as Trump’s.

“Our modeling shows that Harris has two paths to possible success: the Rust Belt states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and the Sun Belt states of Georgia, Arizona and Nevada as well as North Carolina(she could win in either region and still claim the White House). Meanwhile, Trump must win both the Rust Belt and Sun Belt to triumph.”

The turning point in the 2024 election occurred on June 27, when President Joe Biden debated Trump and performed poorly, looking somewhat confused and often missing a chance to go on the attack against his opponent.

When Biden withdrew from the race and endorsed Harris, the entire election was “reset” the Post explains. That’s why models show her as the likely winner when the votes are tabulated three months from now.

“The other, and more crucial, reason that Harris is favored is that her improvement in the polls has opened up a second path on the presidential battlefield and in the electoral college. The polling suggests that, unlike Biden, she is no longer effectively tied to the Rust Belt — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — to hit 270 electoral votes. As of today, Harris is now only a typically sized polling error away from winning key Sun Belt states. Winning all of Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia would also be enough to put Harris over the top and she is continuing to improve her position in those states.”

Trump, however, has to win both the Rust Belt and Sun Belt states, which is a heavy lift for any Republican since Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are either trending Democratic or are historically more favorable for Democrats based on past voting trends.

If Harris does manage to carry the Rust Belt and Sun Belt states, she would wind up with well over 300 electoral votes, and could win in a landslide not seen since 2008 when Barack Obama swamped John McCain by a final Electoral College tally of 365 to 173.

The upcoming Sept. 10 debate between Harris and Trump could also cement the vice president’s chances of winning by proving that she has a firm grasp of all the main issues that voters list as their priorities: The economy, healthcare, education, and national security.

For his part, Trump continues to spin wildly out of control, telling supporters Saturday evening in Pennsylvania, “I am much better looking than her. I’m a better-looking person than Kamala.”

Clearly, Donald hasn’t looked in the mirror lately when he styles the bird’s next that sits atop his head.

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Donald Trump Elections Polls

Conservative Polling Firm’s Latest Numbers Show Trump Is Hemorrhaging Support

Failed one-term president and convicted felon Donald Trump loves to brag about how well he’s doing in the polls, but new numbers from a well-known conservative polling firm are leading some to suggest that his 2024 campaign is toast and “it’s over” for him and his dreams of another term in office.

Rasmussen Reports, rated as a polling firm that “leans right,” has just released a new poll indicating that Trump’s overall support has dropped below 50% and is steadily falling while Vice President Kamala Harris’ numbers are trending upward.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, in a two-way matchup, 49% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for Trump, while 44% would vote for Harris. Four percent (4%) say they’d vote for some other candidate and two percent (2%) are undecided. A week ago, Trump led by seven points over Harris, 50% to 43%, in the first survey since President Joe Biden announced he would withdraw his reelection bid.

Those numbers led election observers to note that Trump is trending downward and could face a complete collapse of his already tenuous support.

A deeper dive into the Rasmussen poll shows that Robert F. Kennedy is now taking more support from Trump than Harris. In matchups before President Joe Biden decided not to seek reelection, Kennedy was siphoning more votes from Biden than Trump, which suggests Harris’ entry into the race has indeed shuffled the deck.

If Trump continues to hemorrhage support, he could be below 40% support by the end of August, especially since the Democratic National Convention is set to begin in Chicago on August 19.

And if we’re lucky, Kamala will beat the shit out of Trump come November by a historic margin that will finally put an end to Donald’s political ambitions.

 

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Donald Trump Elections Kamala Harris Polls

New Polling Shows Trump Is Fading In Florida And Could Lose The State To Kamala Harris

 

Imagine, for just a moment, you’re watching a news broadcast a couple of days after all of the ballots have been tallied in the 2024 election and you see the state of Florida a beautiful shade of blue, meaning that Vice President Kamala Harris has defeated failed former president Donald Trump in the state the convicted felon now calls home.

Far-fetched? Based on new polling data from the Sunshine State, Trump is losing ground in the deeply red state and could well lose in what was once a GOP stronghold.

 

According to Newsweek, Florida is no longer a safe state for Trump.

On Tuesday, a new poll by the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab found how likely Florida voters feel about the current presidential race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

According to the poll, first reported by The Palm Beach Post, Trump currently leads Harris by 7 percentage points in Florida (49 percent to 42 percent).

In a statement to The Palm Beach Post, Michael Binder, the director of the UNH polling lab and political science professor, said, “It’s not a huge surprise to see Trump ahead in his home state of Florida, which he won by three points in 2020.”

The loss of Florida would doom Trump’s already narrowing chances of winning another term in office, especially since new polls from the key battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania show that the disgraced ex-president has lost the advantage he held before President Joe Biden withdrew from the 2024 race and endorsed Harris.

Additionally, Harris is seeing a huge infusion of cash to her campaign coffers, having raised over $200 million over the past week while Trump’s campaign appears to be floundering financially.

Florida is key to Trump’s chances of winning. With the state’s 30 electoral votes now in play, Republicans will have to try and devise a strategy that can allow him to reach the magic number of 270 Electoral College votes. If they can’t, Harris will win in a landslide not seen since Barack Obama won in 2008 and 2012.

Meanwhile, Harris will announce her pick of a running mate next Tuesday in Pennsylvania, which is likely to give her yet another positive bump in the polls.

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Donald Trump Elections GOP Polls

Political Expert Suggests Trump May Dump Vance In Desperate Effort To Boost His Poll Numbers

GOP vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance campaigned in Virginia on Monday, but his first solo campaign event since the 2024 Republican convention didn’t exactly go well, leading to massive online mockery for the Ohio senator.

The Associated Press reports that Vance began by attacking President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic nominee for the White House.

“History will remember Joe Biden as not just a quitter, which he is, but as one of the worst presidents in the history of the United States of America. But my friends, Kamala Harris is a million times worse and everybody knows it. She signed up for every single one of Joe Biden’s failures, and she lied about his mental capacity to serve as president.”

Vance also took a bizarre detour into the world of diet soda, suggesting that his fondness for Diet Mountain Dew would likely get him branded a racist by Democrats.

“I had a Diet Mountain Dew yesterday, and one today — I’m sure they’re gonna call that racist too,” he remarked.

That odd non-sequitur led Mike Madrid, co-founder of The Lincoln Project, to suggest that Trump might dump Vance from the ticket and find someone who can give a decent campaign stump speech.

Others then joined the social media debate on Vance.

 

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Donald Trump Elections Polls

New Poll Shows One Democrat Would Destroy Trump In A General Election Matchup

The latest polls show that President Joe Biden is tied with convicted felon Donald Trump, but there remains talk inside the Democratic Party that Biden should consider dropping out of the race and pass the torch to someone else.

But who would be Biden’s replacement if decides not to run?

Based on a new Reuters/Ipsos poll, only one Democrat seems a sure bet to defeat Trump: Former First Lady Michelle Obama.

According to HuffPost, Mrs. Obama would easily defeat Trump in a head-to-head matchup, with a formidable 11-point lead over him, 50%-39%.

The new poll also finds that 56% of voters, including a third of Democrats, want Biden to drop out of the race amid growing concerns over his age and cognitive health, which were exacerbated by last week’s muddled performance at his debate with Trump.

The poll finds 46% of voters, including 19% of Republicans, want Trump to drop out.

The two are tied with 40% each in the new poll, while Vice President Kamala Harris trails Trump by 1 percentage point, 43%-42%, well within the poll’s 3.5 percentage point margin of error.

In other hypothetical matchups, the poll shows Trump leading California Gov. Gavin Newsom by 3 points, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear by 4% percent, and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer by 5%.

Mrs. Obama also has an overall favorable rating of 55%. Only 42% of those surveyed said they had an unfavorable opinion of her.

However, there is one problem with the idea of running the former first lady in November: She doesn’t exactly seem fond of the idea, telling Oprah Winfrey in 2023, “I’ve never expressed any interest in politics. Ever. I mean, I agreed to support my husband. He wanted to do it, and he was great at it. But at no point have I ever said, ‘I think I want to run.’ Ever. So, I’m just wondering: Does what I want have anything to do with anything? Does who I choose to be have anything to do with it?”

Then again, Mrs. Obama has also admitted that she is absolutely “terrified” Trump might win again and implement his radical right-wing agenda for the country.

For now, at least, it seems a Michelle Obama candidacy will remain just a dream for Democrats. But if she did happen to enter the race, Trump would likely blow a gasket, especially if he lost badly to her.