Even though the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been going on for less than two weeks now, there are multiple reports that the Russian military is suffering staggering troop losses and morale is low among the soldiers who have been sent to fight.
Has Russian President Vladimir Putin overplayed his hand? And what can we expect next in the conflict?
Ed Arnold, a research fellow for European security at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) told Reuters that Putin’s military excursion is about to become “unsustainable,” noting:
“At the current rate of Russian losses, which are not confirmed, but we do have indications that this operation would be unsustainable within about three weeks from the Russian perspective.
“In which case that they would have to consolidate the gains already made and look to see a way of trying to freeze the conflict on the current lines of advance while they [mobilize] more forces from Russia.”
Arnold then spelled out exactly how Russian forces are starting to bog down as they attempt to take control of Ukraine:
“In the north,” Russian forces are “still looking to fully encircle Kyiv.
“In the south, the Russian advance is continued to be slow but they’re seeing a lot more successes in the south, taking Kherson and consolidating and pushing further west, and then also focusing now on Mariupol. However, at the moment, the Russian operation is going so badly, especially from logistics point of view that really Russia might just not have the numbers to make another conflict that is cold be hot again.”
Massive amounts of military and humanitarian aid are being poured into Ukraine by the world, and that means the Russians will face more resistance everywhere they go. That will lead to an already overburdened Russian military force becoming more vulnerable, which will result in more casualties. Those deaths are causing protests in Russia, which is bad news for Putin, who is already on shaky footing. He may not survive this massive miscalculation.