Tag: polls

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Donald Trump Elections Kamala Harris Polls

Kamala Harris Now Has Multiple Paths To Victory As Trump’s Chances Dwindle

With the 2024 election now just 79 days away, the political fortunes of Vice President Kamala Harris and Democrats continue to rise while her opponent, failed former president Donald Trump, is in political freefall, watching as his poll numbers slump even further and his chances of winning dwindle.

A new polling model from the Washington Post shows that Harris has multiple paths to an Electoral College victory. Trump, on the other hand, is facing the prospect of having to win every single battleground state to return to the presidency.

According to the Post, Harris would narrowly lose the election if it were held today, based on current polls across the states, but still has a better chance of winning because her path to victory isn’t as narrow as Trump’s.

“Our modeling shows that Harris has two paths to possible success: the Rust Belt states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and the Sun Belt states of Georgia, Arizona and Nevada as well as North Carolina(she could win in either region and still claim the White House). Meanwhile, Trump must win both the Rust Belt and Sun Belt to triumph.”

The turning point in the 2024 election occurred on June 27, when President Joe Biden debated Trump and performed poorly, looking somewhat confused and often missing a chance to go on the attack against his opponent.

When Biden withdrew from the race and endorsed Harris, the entire election was “reset” the Post explains. That’s why models show her as the likely winner when the votes are tabulated three months from now.

“The other, and more crucial, reason that Harris is favored is that her improvement in the polls has opened up a second path on the presidential battlefield and in the electoral college. The polling suggests that, unlike Biden, she is no longer effectively tied to the Rust Belt — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — to hit 270 electoral votes. As of today, Harris is now only a typically sized polling error away from winning key Sun Belt states. Winning all of Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia would also be enough to put Harris over the top and she is continuing to improve her position in those states.”

Trump, however, has to win both the Rust Belt and Sun Belt states, which is a heavy lift for any Republican since Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are either trending Democratic or are historically more favorable for Democrats based on past voting trends.

If Harris does manage to carry the Rust Belt and Sun Belt states, she would wind up with well over 300 electoral votes, and could win in a landslide not seen since 2008 when Barack Obama swamped John McCain by a final Electoral College tally of 365 to 173.

The upcoming Sept. 10 debate between Harris and Trump could also cement the vice president’s chances of winning by proving that she has a firm grasp of all the main issues that voters list as their priorities: The economy, healthcare, education, and national security.

For his part, Trump continues to spin wildly out of control, telling supporters Saturday evening in Pennsylvania, “I am much better looking than her. I’m a better-looking person than Kamala.”

Clearly, Donald hasn’t looked in the mirror lately when he styles the bird’s next that sits atop his head.

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Donald Trump Elections GOP Polls

Political Expert Suggests Trump May Dump Vance In Desperate Effort To Boost His Poll Numbers

GOP vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance campaigned in Virginia on Monday, but his first solo campaign event since the 2024 Republican convention didn’t exactly go well, leading to massive online mockery for the Ohio senator.

The Associated Press reports that Vance began by attacking President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic nominee for the White House.

“History will remember Joe Biden as not just a quitter, which he is, but as one of the worst presidents in the history of the United States of America. But my friends, Kamala Harris is a million times worse and everybody knows it. She signed up for every single one of Joe Biden’s failures, and she lied about his mental capacity to serve as president.”

Vance also took a bizarre detour into the world of diet soda, suggesting that his fondness for Diet Mountain Dew would likely get him branded a racist by Democrats.

“I had a Diet Mountain Dew yesterday, and one today — I’m sure they’re gonna call that racist too,” he remarked.

That odd non-sequitur led Mike Madrid, co-founder of The Lincoln Project, to suggest that Trump might dump Vance from the ticket and find someone who can give a decent campaign stump speech.

Others then joined the social media debate on Vance.

 

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Crime Donald Trump Elections

New Polling Points To ‘Real Fallout’ From Trump’s Criminal Conviction

As we near the three-week mark since convicted felon Donald Trump was found guilty on 34 criminal counts by a Manhattan jury, it appears that the verdict is indeed dragging down the failed former president’s polls numbers, especially among a key bloc of voters.

Politico, in conjunction with Ipsos, released the results of their latest poll this morning, and it shows that 21 percent of independent voters say Trump’s conviction makes them less likely to vote for him and will also play an important role in who they cast their ballot for this November.

“Among the most notable findings in our poll: 21 percent of independents said the conviction made them less likely to support Trump and that it would be an important factor in their vote. In a close election, small shifts among independent and swing voters could determine the outcome.”

Additionally, while Trump and his allies have repeatedly attempted to sow distrust of the American judicial system, respondents remain confident in it, with one glaring exception: The U.S. Supreme Court.

“But the least trusted actors in the legal system are not the lawyers prosecuting or defending the cases, or even the kind of state judges presiding over Trump’s case. They are the Supreme Court justices themselves, whose public approval has taken a considerable hit in recent years thanks to unpopular rulings issued by the conservative supermajority and a series of rolling ethical controversies involving Republican appointees Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas.”

The responses from independents should terrify Trump’s campaign brain trust, Politico notes.

“Thirty-two percent of them said that the conviction made them less likely to support Trump. Only 12 percent of them said that it made them more likely to support Trump.”

The new poll also shows that just having a conviction on his record could drive voters away from Trump, which is reflected in the 21 percent who told Ipsos the former president being a felon matters to their vote and makes them less likely to support him when they cast their ballot.

If the upcoming election is as close as the one we saw in 2020, that 21 percent could prove decisive, especially in key battleground states such as Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, all of which are in play at the moment.

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Donald Trump Elections Polls

There’s A ‘Big Flashing Warning Sign’ In Donald Trump’s Poll Numbers

Every week, it seems a new poll is released which shows that failed one-term former president Donald Trump holds a lead over President Joe Biden, a trend which has some Democratic strategists worried the polls may be a harbinger of bad news to come when ballots are cast in November.

But as New York Times analyst Nate Cohn notes in a piece he wrote for the newspaper, a quick look behind the numbers reveals that Trump’s support is much weaker than the raw numbers reveal.

Why? Well, mainly because Trump’s so-called polling advantage is among less engaged voters, who aren’t exactly a good indicator of what will happen when balloting begins.

“President Biden has actually led the last three Times/Siena national polls among those who voted in the 2020 election, even as he has trailed among registered voters overall. And looking back over the last few years, almost all of Mr. Trump’s gains have come from these less engaged voters.”

That means Trump’s lead in the polls is illusory at best and could actually be a lead for Biden, Cohn explains.

“While the race has been stable so far, Mr. Trump’s dependence on disengaged voters makes it easy to imagine how it could quickly become more volatile. As voters tune in over the next six months, there’s a chance that disengaged but traditionally Democratic voters could revert to their usual partisan leanings. Alternately, many of these disaffected voters might ultimately stay home, which might help Mr. Biden.”

The preponderance of disengaged voters nearly six months out from the election also makes the job of a pollster that much more challenging, Cohn adds.

“While millions of irregular voters will undoubtedly turn out this November, no one knows just how many of them will ultimately show up — let alone exactly which ones will do so,” he writes. “This too is always a challenge for pollsters, but the deep divide between regular and irregular Democrats this cycle means that the polls may be unusually sensitive to the ultimate makeup of the electorate, with Mr. Biden potentially favored if enough of his disengaged defectors stay home.”

Remember 2016? All of the polls showed Hillary Clinton with a commanding lead over Trump. Despite that, she lost.

And in 2020, while many polls showed Joe Biden ahead on Election Day, none of them showed him winning in a popular and electoral vote landslide, which he did.

This will likely be a close election, but the polls probably won’t reflect the result any more this time than they have in the recent past.

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Donald Trump Elections Polls

Exit Polls From New Hampshire Show Major Red Flags For Trump’s Campaign

Even though he won Tuesday’s New Hampshire Republican primary, failed one-term former president Donald Trump is clearly losing support according to exit polls which show that GOP voters hold much more moderate views on major issues which will decide the 2024 election.

That was the topic of discussion on CNN, where political analyst Gloria Borger noted, “Can I just talk about the abortion number? Because I think that is so striking.”

Anchor Erin Burnett replied, “This is 67 percent oppose a ban in New Hampshire, Only 27 percent favor it.”

Borger continued.

“Right. So here, you have a Republican primary, effectively. And you have this 67 percent number. And you have Joe Biden and Kamala Harris tonight talking about the repeal of Roe v. Wade. It is the one surefire issue — one of the one surefire issues that the Democrats have going into this next election. And it is unclear how motivational it will be, but when you see a number like that, you have to assume it will be very motivational.”

Burnett: “It’s worked in red states, Kansas, Ohio.”

Another panelist then weighed in.

“And listen, it is also why Nikki Haley is sounding a little more moderate than Donald Trump and sounds more moderate than Ron DeSantis, as well. It is shocking to me — we’ll see if these numbers change. The immigration, like 45 percent of these voters think that folks should be offered a legal pathway here in this country. You know, Donald Trump obviously wants to ride the immigration issue to the White House in the way that he did in 2016. He doesn’t quite have the Build the Wall slogan, but he has more vicious things like deportation. But so far, at least with these exit polls, some of these folks are sounding very moderate. The big question is, are we seeing that Donald Trump has a much softer underbelly as a GOP frontrunner than we thought?”

Abortion is the single biggest issue in the 2024 election, and it’s also the issue that will drag down Trump and the GOP. They know it and that’s why they don’t want to talk about it.