Tag: polls

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Donald Trump Elections Polls

Trump Campaign’s Internal Polls Are Causing Panic As Election Day Draws Near

With the 2024 presidential election now less than a week away, Republicans are growing more anxious as they see that their candidate, Donald Trump, is more unpopular than ever and dropping precipitously in the campaign’s latest internal polls.

That’s the word from GOP political strategist Margaret Hoover, who shared her thoughts on the final days of the 2024 race with CNN’s Kaitlan Collins.

“I think if you’re the Trump campaign, you’re not looking at CNN’s numbers. You’re looking at your own internals.”

“And I honestly think — I think their internals are actually giving them pause,” Hoover added. “They do have a lot of resources for polling, more than … media companies have, and they’re probably seeing the same things that you guys are talking about, which is that there is real groundswell in the early vote.”

“There is real enthusiasm, which is hard to measure,” she noted. “I have heard from Republicans that there is concern at the Trump campaign — amongst the operatives that actually really do know the political wherewithal — that the turnout and enthusiasm numbers aren’t where they need to be.”

But perhaps the most troubling numbers for Trump’s flagging campaign can be found in the early vote breakdowns by demographic group, with women casting more ballots than their male counterparts. Considering that abortion is the biggest issue before voters, that doesn’t bode well for Trump or Republicans who are on the ballot with him.

Given what we know so far statistically, this election could easily turn into a Blue wave.

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Donald Trump Elections GOP Kamala Harris Polls

Flood Of GOP Polls Could Be ‘Rigging’ Last-Minute Electoral Momentum In Trump’s Favor

Just a couple of weeks ago, it seemed that everything was going swimmingly for the campaign of Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, showing them leading in almost every key swing state and nationally, with the Democratic ticket’s lead growing as large as four to five percentage points.

Now, however, with Election Day less than two weeks away, you see endless stories in the media about how former president Donald Trump is gaining momentum and could even be considered the favorite.

What in the world is going on here?!

It’s called poll rigging, and as Greg Sargent and Michael Tomasky explain in The New Republic, right-wing affiliated polling firms are bragging that they’re behind the Trump polling bump.

It all went down in mid-September, at a time when the FiveThirtyEight polling averages showed the slightest of leads for Kamala Harris in North Carolina, a must-win state for Trump. Her edge was short-lived: The averages moved back to favoring Trump. And Quantus Insights, a GOP-friendly polling firm, took credit for this development. When a MAGA influencer celebrated the pro-Trump shift on X (formerly Twitter), Quantus’s account responded: “You’re welcome.” 

The implication was clear. A Quantus poll had not only pushed the averages back to Trump; this was nakedly the whole point of releasing the poll in the first place.

Of course, the underlying goal of such poll rigging is simple: Create momentum which then gets press coverage and makes voters believe the election is shifting in favor of a candidate. Republicans have been doing it for years, but the last time they did so, it wound up biting them right on the ass.

Coming at a time when right-wing disinformation is soaring—and Trump’s most feverish ally, Elon Musk, is converting X into a bottomless sewer pit of MAGA-pilled electoral propaganda—these critics see all this as a hyper-emboldened version of what happened in 2022, when GOP polls flooded the polling averages and arguably helped make GOP Senate candidates appear stronger than they were, leading to much-vaunted predictions of a “red wave.” Most prominently, Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg and data analyst Tom Bonier, who were skeptical of such predictions in 2022 and ultimately proved correct, are now warning that all this is happening again. 

There was no 2022 “red wave,” and many of us were left wondering (as we did in 2016 when Trump defeated Hillary Clinton) how the polls could have been so wrong.

They were wrong because polls can easily be manipulated and often reflect the bias of the pollster conducting the poll.

Polling bias/rigging is now so ubiquitous (especially among conservatives) that it has become a default strategy for the 2024 Trump campaign, which knows Harris has more money to spend in the closing days of the campaign as real momentum (i.e. voters going to the polls) builds for Democrats. Republicans are desperate for a narrative to counter what they see happening on the ground.

In their telling, GOP data is serving an essential end of pro-Trump propaganda, which is heavily geared toward painting him as a formidable, “strong” figure whose triumph over the “weak” Kamala Harris is inevitable. This illusion is essential to Trump’s electoral strategy, goes this reading, and GOP-aligned data firms are concertedly attempting to build up that impression, both in the polling averages and in media coverage that is gravitationally influenced by it. They are also engaged in a data-driven psyop designed to spread a sense of doom among Democrats that the election is slipping away from them.

A data-driven psyop. In other words, it’s the sort of thing that’s done in Russia and other authoritarian countries: Repeating a lie so often that people start to believe it’s true.

Who is actually on the path to victory on November 5? A poll won’t tell you. That can only be determined by counting the ballots. So hang in there. We’ve only got 13 more days before the polls are utterly irrelevant.

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Donald Trump Elections GOP Polls

Internal GOP Poll Has Bad News For Trump And Republicans As The Election Draws Closer

With Election Day drawing closer by the hour, a new internal poll conducted by a group allied with the Republican Party has some bad news for former president Donald Trump and the GOP.

A copy of the poll was obtained by Politico, according to Newsweek, and shows the presidential race, along with several key Senate battles, trending to Democrats.

A memo containing the poll was circulated by the Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with the Republican Party.

“The memo … included polling where Trump trailed Vice President Kamala Harris by 3 points in Michigan and by 1 point in Pennsylvania. The candidates were tied in Nevada and Arizona, while Trump led in Wisconsin by 1 point.”

In the Senate polls, incumbent Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey has a 2-point lead over Republican challenger Dave McCormick while Trump trails Vice President Kamala Harris 48 to 49 percent.

Michigan is also a key Senate race, and Rep. Elisa Slotkin (D) is shown with a massive 8-point advantage over Republican Mike Rogers, who has seen his numbers decline drastically in recent months. Slotkin currently leads 46 to 38 percent and appears to be solidifying her support as voters begin going to the polls for early voting.

Additionally, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) is in the fight of his life, with a razor-thin one percent lead over Democratic challenger, Rep. Colin Allred. That could mean that the Lone Star State is also in play and might tip to VP Harris if turnout is high in key Democratic areas such as Austin and Houston.

One thing is certain: Even Republicans can see that their candidates are not doing well, and there’s very little time remaining to make up ground.

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Donald Trump Elections GOP Polls

A Crucial Voting Bloc Is Abandoning The Trump-Vance Ticket: New Polling Data

For years, failed former president Donald Trump and the Republican Party have tried to make inroads with one of the fastest-growing voting blocs in the country: Hispanics.

But it appears that outreach was all for naught, according to new polling data.

On Wednesday’s edition of MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” co-host Jonathan Lemire asked former Biden administration press secretary Jen Psaki about the polls.

“It’s not like Trump’s numbers are really going down per se. At least not much,” Lemire noted. “It’s more Harris’ growing support. It seems like Democrats that, for whatever reason, had really cooled on President Biden are now coming home because they’re excited about Kamala.”

“That’s exactly right, and remember just over a month ago, there was a larger number of double haters as we called them, people who weren’t thrilled about either candidate,” Psaki explained. “There was a large percentage of undecided voters that kind of wavered from poll to poll, and this all is a reflection of Democrats coming home, or Democratic-leaning voters coming home, which is a very good sign for the Biden (sic) and Walz campaign, exactly what you want coming out of the convention.”

“One of the most interesting numbers, certainly 18 to 34-year-olds, but the Hispanic number, Latinos is super interesting because this is a group that Trump and the Trump team has really done a ton of outreach to, and it is a group that you have seen some trends in certain states that has been leaning sometimes more Republican than they have been historically Democratic,” she added.

The segment concluded with Psaki remarking, “So this is a very good sign for them. What this means too, and you see this in state polls which are much more interesting to me than national polls, is that some of the states that seem to be off of the competition lane for the Democratic ticket like Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, are back in competition, and that’s a very good sign for the Harris-Walz team because they have more maps to get to 270, and it’s not just the Blue Wall, even though the Blue Wall will still be pivotal.”

Women, the single-largest voting bloc in the country, are now registering to vote in record numbers, as are young people. Harris will likely win the black vote by a mile and is also looking good among Asian voters. If the Hispanic vote also breaks for Harris, Trump will be left with little more than angry white men who wouldn’t vote for a black woman in a million years.

Could a popular and electoral vote be in the offing for Democrats in November? That’s very possible, but only if we all get out and cast a ballot against Trump and his extreme right-wing agenda.

 

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Elections GOP Kamala Harris Polls

JD Vance: Polls That Show Kamala Harris Has Electoral Momentum Are All ‘Fake!’

According to Sen. J.D. Vance, all of the polls that show Vice President Kamala Harris with political momentum on the eve of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago are all “fake” and shouldn’t be believed.

Vance appeared on the friendly airwaves of Fox News earlier this morning. Host Shannon Bream asked him about several recent polls that have Harris pulling ahead of failed former president Donald Trump in several key battleground states. Rather than answer the question, Vance suggested that support for Harris is stagnant and decreasing.

“How does that not line up then with another poll we got out this morning, Washington Post, ABC, they’re giving the vice president nationally a four to five-point lead?” Bream inquired. “I mean, those are new numbers.”

“So if you think the momentum is not swinging or your internal polls are suggesting differently, every other poll that’s been released has shown great momentum in her direction.”

Vance replied, “You know, Shannon, I think there are a lot of polls that actually show her stagnating and leveling off. Of course, ABC, Washington Post was a wildly inaccurate pollster in the summer of 2020.”

But this isn’t 2020. It’s 2024.

“We can’t worry about polls,” Vance insisted. “Consistently, what you’ve seen in 2016 and 2020 is that the media uses fake polls to drive down Republican turnout and to create dissension and conflict with Republican voters.”

“I’m telling you, every single person who’s watching this, the Trump campaign is in a very, very good spot.”

Fake polls? That’s a common refrain when a candidate is losing. And the Trump-Vance ticket is losing badly, especially when it comes to momentum and fundraising. Their poll numbers drop nearly every time one of them opens his mouth.

At this rate, Trump and Vance could wind up losing by a historic margin. Maybe that would finally put a stake through the heart of the MAGA movement.