With the 2024 election now just 79 days away, the political fortunes of Vice President Kamala Harris and Democrats continue to rise while her opponent, failed former president Donald Trump, is in political freefall, watching as his poll numbers slump even further and his chances of winning dwindle.
A new polling model from the Washington Post shows that Harris has multiple paths to an Electoral College victory. Trump, on the other hand, is facing the prospect of having to win every single battleground state to return to the presidency.
According to the Post, Harris would narrowly lose the election if it were held today, based on current polls across the states, but still has a better chance of winning because her path to victory isn’t as narrow as Trump’s.
“Our modeling shows that Harris has two paths to possible success: the Rust Belt states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and the Sun Belt states of Georgia, Arizona and Nevada as well as North Carolina(she could win in either region and still claim the White House). Meanwhile, Trump must win both the Rust Belt and Sun Belt to triumph.”
The turning point in the 2024 election occurred on June 27, when President Joe Biden debated Trump and performed poorly, looking somewhat confused and often missing a chance to go on the attack against his opponent.
When Biden withdrew from the race and endorsed Harris, the entire election was “reset” the Post explains. That’s why models show her as the likely winner when the votes are tabulated three months from now.
“The other, and more crucial, reason that Harris is favored is that her improvement in the polls has opened up a second path on the presidential battlefield and in the electoral college. The polling suggests that, unlike Biden, she is no longer effectively tied to the Rust Belt — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — to hit 270 electoral votes. As of today, Harris is now only a typically sized polling error away from winning key Sun Belt states. Winning all of Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia would also be enough to put Harris over the top and she is continuing to improve her position in those states.”
Trump, however, has to win both the Rust Belt and Sun Belt states, which is a heavy lift for any Republican since Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are either trending Democratic or are historically more favorable for Democrats based on past voting trends.
If Harris does manage to carry the Rust Belt and Sun Belt states, she would wind up with well over 300 electoral votes, and could win in a landslide not seen since 2008 when Barack Obama swamped John McCain by a final Electoral College tally of 365 to 173.
The upcoming Sept. 10 debate between Harris and Trump could also cement the vice president’s chances of winning by proving that she has a firm grasp of all the main issues that voters list as their priorities: The economy, healthcare, education, and national security.
For his part, Trump continues to spin wildly out of control, telling supporters Saturday evening in Pennsylvania, “I am much better looking than her. I’m a better-looking person than Kamala.”
Clearly, Donald hasn’t looked in the mirror lately when he styles the bird’s next that sits atop his head.
