Think back for a moment and try to remember the last time a Democratic presidential candidate won so overwhelmingly that even a deeply red state like Flordia was in play.
The year was 2012, and Barack Obama was seeking a second term in office against Republican nominee Mitt Romney. Obama wound up storming to an overwhelming electoral victory, winning 332 electoral votes to Romney’s 206.
Yet here we are a dozen years later and Vice President Kamala Harris could be on the verge of turning the Sunshine State blue once more, which would be a death knell for former president Donald Trump’s campaign, according to Newsweek, which reports that a recent poll from the state shows Trump only has a razor-thin lead as early voting begins in some states.
“A recent survey of 600 registered voters by the Independent Center and The Bullfinch Group, conducted September 20 and 23, showed Trump had a 1-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Florida (48 percent to 47). The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.”
Even if Trump does manage to prevail in Florida, such a close race with Harris could wind up costing him the election because it will force him to put resources into a state he should already have locked down, Thomas Gift, an associate professor of political science and director of the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, warns.
“Even if Harris loses Florida, which certainly looks likely, this could cost Trump elsewhere if he’s forced to devote scarce time, resources, and energy into shoring up his lead in the Sunshine State.”
Two constitutional amendments in the ballot could also boost the turnout of progressive and Democratic voters, with Floridians deciding if abortion access should be enshrined under law and marijuana legalized. Those issues have dramatically increased voter interest and turnout in other states that have put similar measures on the ballot.
Florida Democrats are placing their hopes on the Orlando area of the state, which recently elected Congressman Maxwell Frost (D-FL), the first Gen Z House member, who told the Tampa Bay Times, “The people are on our side in terms of policy but not politics. So how do we solve that? We talk about our policy more.”
This late in the 2024 election, Trump and the GOP should have Florida locked up so they can focus on battleground states such as Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Instead, they’re sweating as they see the Sunshine State continue to trend in Harris’s direction. And if that continues, Democrats could well win the biggest prize in the South, which would all but slam the door on Republican dreams of eking out a win in 2024.
