According to some in the Republican Party, Donald Trump’s unexpected win last week and the gains made by the GOP suggest that a “political realignment” is underway in the country that will make their party a permanent majority.
However, according to political scientists John Judis and Ruy Teixeira, the coalition Trump assembled for his win is incredibly fragile and may not last long.
Writing in the New York Times, Judis and Teixeira warn that Trump’s new GOP has a “great potential for a crackup.”
“He might try to carry out his promise of deporting millions of illegal immigrants, a project that could not just wreak havoc among families and in communities but also cause economic chaos. Or take tariffs… Unlike most Republican initiatives, tariffs, if successful, work by imposing short-term costs in prices in order to achieve long-term gains in jobs from otherwise endangered industries. It’s the short-term costs — another round of inflation, this time imposed by Mr. Trump — that might endanger the Republican coalition.”
Additionally, they write, there’s the fact that Trump is an incredibly self-destructive and unstable person, which doesn’t exactly bode well when you’re trying to lead people.
“The final obstacle to a strong realignment is Mr. Trump himself, who is consumed with the quest for power and self-aggrandizement, and appears eager to seek revenge against his detractors. Many of his difficulties during his first term stemmed from his own misbehavior, and he continues to revel in division and divisiveness.”
“Trump’s dream of a historic Republican realignment may not survive his second term,” they conclude, and it’s hard to argue against such a prediction. After all, we’ve all seen how the twice-impeached president-elect causes chaos everywhere he goes.
Here’s a personal prediction: Within six months, the U.S. economy will be in a deep recession, Trump will be mired in personal scandal, and the GOP will be looking for a way to excuse his actions.
Check back in May and let’s see if I’m right.
