History Politics

Presidential Historian Predicts Trump Administration Will Not Last More Than 200 Days

Ronald L. Feinman is a professor of history at Florida Atlantic University and the author of Assassinations, Threats, and the American Presidency: From Andrew Jackson to Barack Obama. And in an article he wrote for the History News Network, Professor Feinman has some news that is sure to make Donald Trump very angry: The current administration with Trump as president will not survive beyond 200 days.

In his article, Feinman lays out how what has already happened in the first month of Trump’s presidency is a good predictor of what we can expect to see in the future:

“Trump, already under fire by many conservatives and Republicans for his ‘bromance’ with Russian President Vladimir Putin, is suspect as to his loyalty to traditional American foreign policy, as a result of him having hired Flynn in the first place. Critics had observed that Flynn seemed unreliable and had poor judgment. Former colleagues darkly joked that there were ‘Flynn facts,’ a reference to his penchant for making up stuff. Flynn had also been criticized for being too close to Putin. At the Republican convention he joined in a chorus of ‘Lock her up,’ a reference to Hillary Clinton.”

Next, Professor Feinman notes that Vice President Pence is now asserting himself more and seeing his power and influence increase:

“The fact that Vice President Mike Pence played a major role in pushing Flynn out is a sign that Pence is already asserting himself with Trump, and it seems clear that Pence will not stand by and allow our foreign policy to be damaged, or our national security to be endangered. The American people, ultimately, would not expect anything less.”

Pence would make his move to get rid of Trump with the help of other nervous Republicans:

“Pence knows how to play ‘hard ball’ and it is clear by his demeanor and body language that he is often uncomfortable with Trump’s freewheeling and careless behavior. An investigation into the Flynn matter will develop, with Speaker of the House Paul Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell promoting it. Additionally, Senators John Cornyn of Texas, Roy Blunt of Missouri, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, and John McCain of Arizona all are pushing for hearings. As the FBI investigates this situation further, which would be expected to occur as a normal procedure after such a high level and immediate scandal, the earliest ever in any Presidential term (25 days), there will be calls for Trump to resign or be impeached.”

Should that fail, Feinman believes Pence would invoke the 25th Amendment and try to declare that Trump is unfit to serve:

“As this author wrote on January 22 on History News Network, Pence could, even if Trump vehemently opposed it, invoke the 25th Amendment, Section 4 with the approval of a majority of the cabinet, which would make Pence ‘Acting President.’ Some might call it a ‘palace coup’ but Pence could make a convincing case that it is too risky to leave Trump in power. Pence faces a great burden, and whether one agrees with his own agenda on domestic and foreign policy, it seems clear that the Vice President would do what he feels compelled to do if the situation further deteriorates.”

Is Pence any saner than Trump? Probably, but he’s also much more extreme on most issues. He was also a failure as governor of Indiana.

No matter how you slice it, we’re screwed with either of these men as president.

This article was originally published by the same author at

By Andrew Bradford

Proud progressive journalist and political adviser living behind enemy lines in Red America.

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