Arizona Democratic Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s refusal to support reform of the Senate filibuster and vote in favor of President Joe Biden’s “Build Back Better” agenda have her in big trouble with Democratic voters in the Grand Canyon state, according to a new poll which suggests that Sinema will likely face a primary challenge when she seeks reelection in 2024.
The poll, according to HuffPost, was conducted by the progressive group Data for Progress:
“Her opposition to President Biden’s agenda is setting her up for an incredibly tough Democratic primary,” said Sean McElwee, one of the co-founders of Data for Progress, while acknowledging that 2024 is a long way away. “She will be facing immense headwinds.”
Seventy percent of prospective 2024 primary voters have a negative opinion of Sinema, with just 24% expressing a positive view of the first-term senator. Nearly half have a “very unfavorable” opinion. For contrast, 85% of primary voters have a favorable opinion of Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), who is also in his first term.
The poll named four potential challengers to Sinema in a hypothetical Democratic primary: Rep. Ruben Gallego; Rep. Greg Stanton, the former mayor of Phoenix; Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego; and Tucson Mayor Regina Romero.
If those four were to run in a primary (which is unlikely), Gallego would garner 23% of the vote to Sinema’s 19% and Stanton’s 13%.
However, in head-to-head matchup with Sinema, all four of the challengers would best the current Arizona senator by double digits:
All four potential challengers have massive leads: Ruben Gallego leads Sinema 62% to 23%; Kate Gallego has a 60% to 25% edge; Stanton leads 59% to 24%; and Romero leads 55% to 26%.
President Biden could play a major role in the 2024 Arizona Senate primary, too, as he is still very popular with Democrats in the state. However, it’s unclear if the president would support a primary challenge to Sinema.
Other recent polls have also shown that Sinema is losing support among Democratic voters:
A Morning Consult survey from earlier this month found that 46% of Democrats approved of her job performance, while 40% disapproved. Overall, voters were split on her performance, with 42% approving and 42% disapproving.
If Sinema does wind up preventing passage of Biden’s ambitious domestic agenda, 2024 could wind up being a very bad year for the incumbent senator.