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Let’s Clear Up The Confusion–And Lies–About The Polls As Election Day Approaches

Here’s something that I really need to get off my chest: Over the past week or so, all you hear on cable news is that the race for the White House is tightening and will be close. But is that really true, or is it just hype? I had my doubts that Trump was actually pulling ahead, so I decided to do some research and let you know what I found. Here we go.

First of all, let’s get this one irrefutable fact on the table and watch as the heads on Trump acolytes start to spin because it flies in the face of the bullshit they’ve been spewing: Clinton is ahead of Trump in 93 percent of polls conducted in the two months before Election Day. Trump leads in just 3 percent of the polls. Another 3 percent of polls show a tied race. How impressive is this number? Well, it’s a greater proportion of the polls than President Obama led when he coasted to re-election in 2012, racking up 332 electoral votes to Mitt Romney’s 206.

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Also, some have suggested the race is close in key states such as Florida, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. But it isn’t. The early vote totals in Florida and Nevada show us the reason Clinton looks to have these two pivotal states locked up before November 8 even arrives. Analysis of the early vote in both Florida and Nevada reveal that Hispanics have come out in record numbers to vote for Clinton. If that trend continues on Election Day, Trump will be swept away by a rising tide of Latino voters who will form a permanent winning Democratic coalition for the next two to three decades.

It seems necessary to remind those in the GOP–including Trump himself–that even if the national horserace numbers have narrowed, Presidential elections are not won at the national level. The Presidential race is 50 individual races in the states. And using that metric, it appears Clinton will outpace what Obama did in 2012.

The final electoral projection from the LA Times, released just this morning, has Clinton winning 352 electoral votes. Trump gets 186. That is very definition of a blowout.

So while it may sound good to say the race is close, it’s really not. Despite the positive words coming from the Republicans and the Trump surrogates, this election is done and Trump is toast. So go ahead and put the champagne on ice. We should all be toasting to a Clinton victory early Tuesday evening.

This article was originally published by the same author at LiberalAmerica.org

By Andrew Bradford

Proud progressive journalist and political adviser living behind enemy lines in Red America.

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