Crime Donald Trump

How Likely Is It That Donald Trump Will Be Indicted In The Next Three Months?

Even though he’s been out of office for less than 60 days, former President Donald Trump has been under siege on the legal front, facing possible indictment for crimes ranging from seditious conspiracy for his role in the Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol to tax and insurance fraud related to his business dealings.

But what are the chances that Trump will actually be indicted, and what charges are the most likely to be proven in court of law?

Let’s start with the federal charge of seditious conspiracy, which the Los Angeles Times examined shortly after the Capitol riots:

“The law against ‘seditious conspiracy’ makes it a crime for ‘two or more persons … in any place subject to the jurisdiction of the United States to conspire to overthrow, put down or to destroy by force the government of the United States … or by force to prevent, hinder or delay the execution of any law of the United States, or by force to seize, take or possess any property of the United States.’ A conviction could lead to fines or up to 20 years in prison.”

Since Trump is no longer in office, the protection against indictment afforded to sitting presidents no longer applies, and that, according to University of Chicago law professor David A. Strauss, means that any jurisdiction can file any charges they want against him:

“I think it’s clear that after a president leaves office, he can be tried for a crime he committed while he was president. The Constitution itself says that if he’s impeached, convicted and removed from office, he can then be tried for a crime.”

The most pressing legal pressure on Trump is located in New York, and it’s being applied by Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance, Jr. and New York Attorney General Letitia James.

Vance recently obtained eight years of Trump’s tax returns, which are believed to contain evidence of insurance and tax fraud, among other crimes, which the former president, his company, and members of his family have committed over the past decade. Those crimes can easily be proven by matching the tax returns with documents subpoenaed by Vance’s office or on file in other locations.

James is also looking at Trump and the Trump Organization’s finances, and may bring criminal charges that closely match those from Vance’s office.

So what are the chances that Trump is actually indicted over the next three months, say by the first week in June? Considering the progress that has already been made by New York prosecutors, it would be nothing short of a miracle if multiple indictments aren’t handed down by grand juries within that time frame. And when it happens, Donald Trump will be one step closer to finally being brought to the bar of justice he’s managed to avoid for far too long.


By Andrew Bradford

Proud progressive journalist and political adviser living behind enemy lines in Red America.

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