The House Select Committee investigating the January 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol will meet Monday and is expected to make criminal referrals to the Department of Justice on three felony accounts against one-term, twice-impeached former president Donald Trump, according to reports.
- 18 U.S.C. 2383, insurrection
- 18 U.S.C. 1512(c), obstruction of an official proceeding
- 18 U.S.C. 371, conspiracy to defraud the United States government.
Which of those charges is most likely to lead to a successful conviction of Trump? That was the question posed to former U.S. Attorneys Joyce Vance and Barbara McQuade Sunday morning on MSNBC.
Vance noted that while getting a conviction against an ex-president will be a challenge, one of the three charges is easiest to prove.
“Prosecutors have to prove guilt beyond a reasonable doubt, and it is not a situation where the tie goes to the runner.”
Having made that point clear, Vance added:
“This sort of charge that you’re talking about, which is the midpoint here interference with an official proceeding, seems like the sort of charge that prosecutors might be far more likely to believe they could convict beyond a reasonable doubt.”
Vance also explained her reasoning:
“Because so much of Trump’s conduct was public, so much of it is on videotape. There are so many conversations leading up to January sixth, including the entirety of his perpetuation of the big lie. There is an entire trajectory of evidence here that could be used.”
Prosecutors can expect a relatively predictable defense from Trump, Vance concluded:
“That doesn’t mean it is important to say that Trump would be without defenses, and again we’ve all talked exhaustively about the fact that Trump would point to his sincere and legitimate belief that he had won the election and that there was fraud and prosecutors would still have to overcome that. But it seems to be less heavy of a lift on the insurrection charge on the evidence here.”
