Early Voting Numbers From A Key Battleground State Are Bad News For Trump And The GOP

Early voting has begun in several states, and a look at the numbers from one key battleground state should have former president Donald Trump and the Republicans very worried, according to the CEO of a data analysis firm.

Tom Bonier is head of the TARA Group, and he’s been taking a deep dive into the raw numbers attached to early ballots in the state of Michigan. Keep in mind that data doesn’t indicate which candidate or party will win or lose the 2024 election, but it does provide insight into who is showing up to vote.

One key finding from Bonier’s research is women are showing up in numbers that dwarf the 2020 and 2022 elections.

As Bonier notes on Twitter/X, “A lot of that is being driven by huge turnout from Black women. Black voters overall are accounting for a substantially larger share of the votes cast thus far, relative to the same point in ’20 or ’22.”

Black women are a key voting bloc for both Vice President Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party.

Bonier also notes that the early voting numbers also show the age range of those casting ballots.

“And to drill down even further… older Black women are very much leading the way in Michigan. Their turnout so far is 115% what it was at this point in 2020.”

All of this suggests that Democrats are on pace to win Michigan’s 15 electoral votes, which would help Harris get closer to the 270 total electoral votes she needs to be the next president of the United States.