Elections Polls

Democrats Now Have An 83.5% Chance Of Retaking The Senate As Support For The GOP Collapses

For just a moment, imagine the United States Senate no longer under the control of Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Republicans. Legislation would move forward and the upper chamber of Congress would finally work for the people once again instead of merely serving as little more than a judge-confirming rubber stamp for the executive branch.


According to Newsweek, Democrats are now on the verge of retaking control of the Senate and are projected to have an 83.5 percent chance of doing so:

“Democrats are being touted for a clean sweep of the House, Senate and the White House in a series of election forecasts.

“At the time of writing, forecasts from Decision Desk give the Democrats an 83.5 percent chance of winning a majority in the Senate, an 83.6 percent percent chance of defeating President Donald Trump, and a greater than 99 percent chance of keeping the House.

“According to those predictions, the party could be in command of all three of these cornerstones of power in the United States following the upcoming elections.”

The Decision Desk forecast isn’t an outlier, either. It closely mirrors another projection from FiveThirtyEight:

“At the time of writing, its analysis suggests that in 68 of 100 scenarios the Democrats would take control of the upper chamber.”

Just last month, Cook Political Report said eight incumbent senators were considered to be in danger of losing their seats when the ballots are counted in November. That trend has continued:

“Two Republican seats are now ‘lean’ (competitive races in which one party has an advantage) Democrat, six seats are ‘toss-ups’ and two are lean Republican. Three further are rated ‘likely’ Republican and 10 ‘solid’ Republican.”

On the Democratic side of the ledger, only one Democratic-held Senate seat (Doug Jones of Alabama) is rated as now leaning to Republicans.

Overall, Democrats only need to win a net of three seats if the Biden-Harris ticket is successful and beats Donald Trump and Mike Pence. In a tie Senate vote, Kamala Harris would cast the tiebreaking vote in her role as president of the Senate.

A Democratic clean sweep would be a huge blow to Republicans, who just four years ago controlled the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives. And the main reason the GOP is facing such a massive blowout is due to their unflagging support of Donald Trump. They have cast their fortunes with him and may soon have to pay the price for that fealty.


By Andrew Bradford

Proud progressive journalist and political adviser living behind enemy lines in Red America.

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